Hurrah, Tony Blair will continue for his last term in office after being declared the winner after passing the 324 seat post thereby gaining the majority of Britain's 646 seats and forcing Michael Howard to concede
has brieflets and Tim Dunlop
has more extensive theoretical phespological analysis. I will just provide live updates, statistics and some observations
The current results
stand at LAB 351 CON 191 LD 59 with 613 of 646 seats declared. Labour has so far suffered a 3.2% swing to the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats have so far had a net gain of 12 seats, Labour has lost 46 without a single gain and the Conservatives have a net gain of 31 seats. The issues of Iraq - resulting in widespread mistrust of the PM Tony Blair that has been a real problem for every Briton I have talked to - and the London Disaster, resulting from immigration and Iraq combined, have caused massive swings as high as 30% in some seats - completely unheard of here in Australia.
There is also not yet any results in Northern Ireland
, which is interesting but will have no bearing on the results, except in the case of a hung parliament, because all three major parties have no hold there.
All updates in WAST time, which seven hours ahead of British time.1:54pm
: Conservatives gain Ludlow from LD.
LAB 351 CON 192 LD 59 with 614 of 646 seats declared.
Vote share: LAB 36.3% CON 33.1% LD 22.6% Other 8.0%2:06pm
: Labour holds Sheffield Attercliffe, CON gain Croydon Central from LAB.
LAB 352 CON 193 LD 59 with 616 of 646 seats declared.
Vote share: Others drop to 7.9%, rest constant.2:06pm
: CON hold Norfolk Mid.
LAB 352 CON 194 LD 59 with 616 of 646 seats declared.
Vote share: Others back at 8%, rest constant.2:14pm:
LAB hold Selby
LAB 353 CON 194 LD 59 with 618 of 646 seats declared.
Vote share: LAB 36.3% CON 33.1% LD 22.5% Other 8.0%2:33pm
: Just as an example of how much the swing against Labour has been, in the Welsh seat of Blaenau Gwent
there has been a staggering 48.9% swing from the incumbent Labour member Maggie Jones to independant Peter Law, the previous margin was 60.8% to Labour which is about as safe as you can get. Law picked up a swing of 58.2% and Jones copped a 39.7% negative swing. Final margin was 58.2% - 32.3%3:06pm
: CON hold Hampshire North East.
LAB 353 CON 195 LD 59 with 619 of 646 seats declared.
Vote share: LAB 36.3% CON 33.2% LD 22.6% Other 7.9%4:25pm
: Im going out now, there have been no new results since the last update. Post-mortem on my return.12:42am
: LAB 355 CON 197 LD 62 with 632 of 646 seats declared
Vote share: LAB 35.9% CON 32.9% LD 22.5% Other 8.7%
Northern Ireland results have started to come in, so far the UUP are doing badly, losing two seats to DUP and SDLP. Going to bed now - most, if not all, of the votes should be counted by the time I get up and update again.11:28am:
Nothing but Northern Ireland results last night. Basically Sinn Fein gained an extra seat, the DUP gained four to own the entire north east, and the UUP was completely routed to lose all but one of their six seats - what happened there?
LAB 355 CON 197 LD 62 with 644 of 646 seats declared
Vote share: LAB 35.2% CON 32.3% LD 22.1% Other 10.4%9:18pm:
For some weird reason 645/646 seats counts as all of them, don't know what happened to that missing seat.Further Update:
The missing seat is Staffordshire South, which had its election cancelled because the LD candidate died just before polling day. There'll be a by-election for it, but it's a safe Tory seat, so the outcome won't affect Blair's majority. (Via ZachA)
But anyway, Labour's final majority stands at a paltry 66.
Final seat count: LAB 356 CON 197 LD 62 DUP 9 SNP 6 SF 5 PC 3 SLDP 3 IKHH 1 UUP 1 Respect 1 Independant 1.
Vote share: LAB 35.2% CON 32.3% LD 22.0% Other 10.5% - this contrats in starking fashion with the exit polls of LAB 37% CON 33% LD 22% Other 8%, especially the increaeed vote for other parties despite a 5.5% drop in the Northern Ireland vote turnout.
Turnout: 61.3% (up 2% on 2001)
Final swing: 3.0% to CON.
Interestingly enough, the BBC's seat counter predicted LAB 370 CON 187 LD 59 Other 30 with the final vote percentages, so that was proved to be innaccurate, however fine tuning for tactical voting made it a little better.
So that's it. Yay Labour for another five years but probably not Blair. Brown doesn't seem too bad a chap though so I'm not worried.